Natera, Inc.’s (NTRA) Prenatal Tests May be Inaccurate Up to 85% of the Time
On January 1, 2022, an article from the New York Times called into question the accuracy of certain noninvasive prenatal tests, including tests developed by Natera. The article alleges that positive results on tests are incorrect about 85% percent of the time. Patients who receive a positive result are supposed to pursue follow-up testing, which can be expensive and invasive, and cannot be performed until later in pregnancy. The investigation highlights the statistical challenge of testing for things that are extremely rare. But, this isn’t adequately explained to patients who are sold the tests. Companies that develop these tests use language like “highly accurate” and “total confidence,” do not publish data on their tests’ overall performance, or only stress data from tests that are more accurate.
On this news, Natera’s stock declined as much as 3.5% during intraday trading on January 3, 2022, injuring investors.
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